From Niche To Normal: Why The 5–15% EV Window Changes Everything - CleanTechnica

The article discusses the critical adoption window of 5% to 15% market penetration as a pivotal phase in the transition of technologies from niche products to mainstream acceptance. Drawing on frameworks like diffusion of innovations, logistic growth models, and complex adaptive systems, it explains how early adopters and innovators initially test new technologies, but widespread adoption accelerates sharply once this threshold is crossed. This phase is crucial because it triggers shifts in infrastructure, policy, and consumer attitudes that enable rapid growth and market transformation. Examples from various industries illustrate this pattern. The smartphone market saw rapid expansion after surpassing 15% penetration around 2010, driven by improved networks, apps, and falling prices. Similarly, digital photography transitioned from niche to mainstream after digital cameras exceeded 15% market share in 2004, leading to a decline in film-based photography infrastructure. In electric vehicles (EVs), infrastructure development is an early indicator of impending adoption growth. Countries like the Netherlands, Germany, and Norway invested heavily in public