New evidence suggests Israel’s nuclear power may be underestimated

New evidence indicates that Israel’s nuclear arsenal may be significantly larger than previously believed, potentially comprising 200 to 300 warheads—about three times the widely accepted estimate of around 90. This reassessment is based on new analyses of Israel’s plutonium stockpile, production capacity, and satellite imagery of the Dimona nuclear facility. Experts estimate that Israel has produced between 750 and 1,110 kilograms of separated plutonium since the late 1960s, sufficient for 187 to 277 nuclear weapons depending on design. Israel maintains a policy of “nuclear ambiguity,” neither confirming nor denying its nuclear capabilities, and has historically conducted preemptive strikes to prevent regional adversaries from acquiring nuclear weapons. Amid escalating tensions with Iran, including Israel’s recent Operation Rising Lion targeting Iranian nuclear sites and Iran’s retaliatory missile and drone attacks, Israel’s nuclear capabilities have become a critical factor in regional security. Israel is believed to possess a full nuclear triad—land-based ballistic missiles (