New tools needed to predict real nuclear war fallout, says report

A recent report commissioned by the U.S. Congress highlights that current models predicting the environmental and climatic effects of nuclear war are outdated and inadequate for modern scenarios. The report, titled "Potential Environmental Effects of Nuclear War," emphasizes that the global nuclear landscape has changed significantly since the Cold War, with more countries possessing nuclear weapons of varying scales. It argues that the traditional "nuclear winter" model is based on outdated assumptions and calls for new modeling approaches that consider multiple factors such as fire dynamics, aerosol transport, ecosystem impacts, and physical earth system responses. The report proposes four plausible nuclear conflict scenarios ranging from a single detonation to a large-scale exchange involving thousands of warheads. The report recommends that U.S. agencies adopt advanced methods like model intercomparison projects (MIPs), commonly used in climate science, to reduce uncertainties in projections. It suggests focusing on the energy released through thermal and kinetic means, while excluding initial and residual radiation effects, and emphasizes the importance of assessing impacts in contemporary urban environments based