Reassessing Steel: How Falling Cement Use Alters Future Projections - CleanTechnica

The article "Reassessing Steel: How Falling Cement Use Alters Future Projections" explores a revised outlook on global steel demand, prompted by insights from Scott Norris, a structural steel expert. Initially, the author anticipated steady steel demand growth driven by ongoing infrastructure expansion in developing countries. However, after examining cement industry trends and their close link to steel consumption—since about half of steel demand is tied to construction—the author now believes previous steel growth projections were overly optimistic. The World Cement Association’s forecast that global cement demand will peak and then decline by mid-century, due to completed urbanization in developed economies and changing building methods, significantly impacts steel demand expectations. China’s massive past infrastructure build-out, which accounted for half of global steel and cement demand, is winding down, and other regions like India and Southeast Asia are unlikely to replicate China’s scale of growth. Despite this, Norris highlights that developing regions, particularly India and parts of Southeast Asia, will see near-term steel demand increases due to ongoing infrastructure projects and new blast furnace steel plants, which have long operational lifespans extending into the late 21st century. India aims to double steel production by 2030, with potential further growth by mid-century, while Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam and Indonesia also anticipate rising demand. Nonetheless, the author remains skeptical that these regional increases will offset the broader global decline driven by cement displacement and decarbonization trends, suggesting a more cautious long-term outlook for steel demand than previously assumed.