Sam Altman thinks AI will have ‘novel insights’ next year

In a recent essay, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman outlined his vision for AI’s transformative impact over the next 15 years, emphasizing the company’s proximity to achieving artificial general intelligence (AGI) while tempering expectations about its imminent arrival. A key highlight from Altman’s essay is his prediction that by 2026, AI systems will likely begin generating “novel insights,” marking a shift toward AI models capable of producing new and interesting ideas about the world. This aligns with OpenAI’s recent focus on developing AI that can assist scientific discovery, a goal shared by competitors like Google, Anthropic, and startups such as FutureHouse, all aiming to automate hypothesis generation and accelerate breakthroughs in fields like drug discovery and material science. Despite this optimism, the scientific community remains cautious about AI’s ability to create genuinely original insights, a challenge that involves instilling AI with creativity and a sense of what is scientifically interesting. Experts like Hugging Face’s Thomas Wolf and former OpenAI researcher Kenneth Stanley highlight the difficulty of this task, noting that current AI models struggle to generate novel hypotheses. Stanley’s new startup, Lila Sciences, is dedicated to overcoming this hurdle by building AI-powered laboratories focused on hypothesis generation. While it remains uncertain whether OpenAI will succeed in this endeavor, Altman’s essay offers a glimpse into the company’s strategic direction, signaling a potential next phase in AI development centered on creativity and scientific innovation.